Jean Narcisse Djaha, PhD
Photo: President-elect Donald Trump attends a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace in Paris as part of ceremonies to mark the reopening of the Notre-Dame de Paris Cathedral. Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters/File
Introduction
This article originates from a discussion I had with several student friends and alumni from Harvard Kennedy School of Government, Yale University, and MIT in the second week of December 2024, about what President Donald Trump’s foreign policy in Africa could be for the next four years. After almost four hours of intense and captivating interactions, they asked if I could write an article at the African Council on Foreign Relations to answer these questions: Why will Donald J Trump lead the next world Order? Why was he chosen to lead such a critical enterprise in a changing international economic order?
Many people wonder why Donald J. Trump is making a crucial comeback to become the 47th President of the United States of America today. Millions of experts are unable to answer this question. Indeed, the world order we are in began 2000 years ago, built and led by the Catholic Church, then the Roman Empire. That rules-based international order was led by a far-right group of leaders, which contributed to the successful development of the international relations we live in today. That international rules-based order was based on biblical principles and rules. The book of Daniel may be the most critical book that addresses the upcoming global order and who will lead it.
As in the past, the new world order will be led by a distinguished political leader, who, based on historical observations, is Donald Trump today. Every two thousand years, the world changes. That change comes under the leadership of a strong political figure.
She was right when Nancy Pelosi, Speaker Emerita of the House and the Representative for California’s 11th Congressional District, declared that the 2024 US presidential elections were not a usual political race. Beyond the political race for the White House, there is a significant privilege in becoming the leader of the next world order. Among the candidates, Donald J. Trump proved to be the right choice.
In this article, I argue that President Donald J. Trump’s historic comeback will enable the shaping and execution of a new rules-based international order.
What is an order in international relations?
Before everything, let us define what an order is. There are several definitions of world order in the literature of international relations. Professor John Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago, provides a straightforward and comprehensive definition of world order. For him, an order is composed of institutions. In other words, an order is the grouping of international and regional institutions that sets the rules and principles governing the world of global politics and economy. In the international relations literature, it is widely accepted that institutions are essentially comprised of rules, norms, and principles.
The African Continental Free Trade Agreement is a framework of rules and standards that governs trade among African countries. In other words, the African Continental Free Trade Area is designed to dictate the behavior of African countries that seek to trade under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement. The plurality of actors that have joined it indicates that we are heading toward an international economic and political order soon.
Part One
The year 2025 and the definition of the rules of the new world order for the next 2000 years
Meeting the moment
The year 2025 marks the beginning of a new world order, characterized by a highly economic and international trade-oriented approach. Why this? The world order we are in today began two thousand years ago in its simple form. Every thousand years, the world starts a new world order, divided into several sub-orders: political, economic, cultural, and social. When it comes to presidents, they have the power to shape the economic order, but other forms of order are beyond their sphere of control and influence in international relations. In other words, presidents do not
Indeed, the world order we are in began 2,025 years ago (25 BC), led by the Roman Empire’s Leader, Augustus Caesar (today associated with the Catholic Church). Augustus Caesar’s rule defined and shaped the rules-based international order that has existed until now.
Today, we are in 2025, and history is repeating itself. Unlike the past, the form of political government has changed. The world transitioned from a rules-based empire governance system to an individual state rulership system, with democracy serving as the basis for electing leaders to political office.
The election of Donald J. Trump signals the beginning of a long global political and economic order. Such an order begins under the leadership of a distinguished political and spiritual leader like Donald Trump today. Trump picks several Catholics for Cabinet: Kennedy, Rubio, Stefanik, Ratcliffe, Duffy, and many more. And this is by far the most far-right cabinet in the history of American political life. Why this? The answer is simple: the new world order is likely to be a Christian rules-based international order. And this is just getting started in 2025. This tells us much about who will lead the upcoming international order.
Seizing the opportunity to redefine international trade routes
On Friday, June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lions against Iran, followed by a retaliation from Tehran. This conflict occurred against the backdrop of the Gaza affair, which began on October 7, 2023. Palestine is a strategic crossroads for the world. It is essential for the oil and gas trade. It is not only the driving force behind the division of the Arab world. Above all, it is crucial for trade and strategic routes for the American-led international economic order. Decades ago, France and Great Britain were fighting for control of Palestine, Egypt, and the Caravans to India, which were the basis of their national fortunes.
Today, it’s the USA’s turn to prevent the Silk Roads, China’s trade routes, i.e., the commercial transport of Chinese products to Europe and from Africa, the raw materials needed for an economy that has already overtaken that of the USA.
In September 2024, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, took to the podium at the annual meeting of the United Nations, declaring that his country had roads and that the USA should protect these roads to halt China’s advance in the Middle East.
As the leader of the new world economic order, Donald Trump wants to redefine the rules of the game, reshuffle the cards in international trade, and maintain the USA’s place as leader of the next global order: economic, political, and geopolitical.
Global trade is a driving force necessary for economic growth and sustainable development. If there is a point on which most international development and international relations experts agree, it is that trade among nations constitutes a force for economic and sustainable development. Trade is the number one contributor to global economic, political, and geopolitical leadership.
Addressing the Changing International Trade Order
Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20, 2025, is widely seen as ushering in a significant upheaval for US foreign policy and a change in how economic diplomacy is conducted in US foreign engagements. As the most important driver of America’s foreign policy, international trade is where Donald J Trump will focus his first 100 days to secure trade routes. In international relations, since the Roman Empire, trade has consistently been recognized as a powerful tool for building strong economic power and practical statecraft. The first mission of Donald Trump is one of
- a significant redefinition of America’s trade policy, and this renovation must aim at making it more economic than political, which should include a regional arrangement with Canada and Mexico to reaffirm the Monroe Doctrine and
- 2) an economic diplomacy based on half liberal and half realist, and an action plan to counter China’s growing economic influence in international trade markets.
In Europe, President Trump’s challenge is likely to win the trade war with Russia. The Ukraine-Russia war is, first and foremost, a global trade war to control the European market, which is by far the most sophisticated free trade market in the international trade system. Zbigniew Brzezinski, a prominent American geopolitical strategist, also emphasized the significance of Eurasia in his book, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. He agreed with Mackinder’s views on the crucial role of the Eurasian region. If one nation—or alliance—can gain control over Eurasia’s resources, it would become an unstoppable global superpower… one that would upend the current US-led world order and lead the next one.
In Africa, Donald J. Trump will not repeat the mistake he made during his first term by neglecting Africa’s role in shaping the new international trade order. The African Continental Free Trade Area presents a significant opportunity for the United States to make a strong comeback in the trade business with the African continent. Built on liberal economic principles and values, Trump’s presidency will seize this opportunity to have a strong trade and commercial footprint. Additionally, it is no secret that the United States has played a significant role in implementing most free trade agreements in human history. In 1993, the United States played a leading role in creating the EU Single Market, which is at the heart of the European integration process. Since 2018, we have begun seeing the US involved in implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area through the United States Chamber of Commerce and its Africa Business Center.
How will his administration win against Russia? From the US perspective, the optimal goal would be to defeat Russia to control Eurasia. Russia is the primary Eurasian geopolitical challenger to the US-led world order.
Nothing is clear yet; the next five years will provide more cl
Part Two
The return of a new real politics and a new global geopolitical order
Donald Trump’s return to the White House marks the resurgence of a new realpolitik and seeks to establish the rules and direction of the new global geopolitical order. A solid “America First” policy is underway.
The return of real politics
Putting America first policy. If Donald Trump’s election means anything, it marks the end of the liberal world order and its replacement by grim realpolitik, described by one MIT analyst as “the pursuit of vital state interests in a dangerous world that constrains state behavior.” The new realpolitik marks the end of an era in which politics was mainly defined by ideology and religion. As in the 19th century, world events now revolve around control of markets, resource security, emerging technology, and military aptitude. In other words, like in the year 0025 BC, trade is becoming the real center of realpolitik. In simple terms, America’s future depends on its capacity to control most of the global trade markets and routes.
Realpolitik may be ugly, but it is back. BRICS nations are ruthlessly practicing it, and many African countries, too. Over the next few years, this will dominate America’s worldview since the challenges it faces grow daily and at a rapid pace. Whereas his predecessors sought engagement with other countries, Trump’s style will be to cut deals narrowly perceived as beneficial to the United States.
A new geopolitical order emerges.
As new regional powers emerge worldwide, the United States seeks to reaffirm its supremacy as the world’s leading political power. “A transition is underway to a new global order,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres acknowledged in issuing “A New Agenda for Peace,” which sets out steps to help stitch back together a world fractured and imperiled by growing “geostrategic competition and geoeconomic fragmentation.” What will happen at this geopolitical crossroads? Will Donald Trump be capable of bringing global powers into a new international political and governance system under the leadership of the United States of America and its allies?
This global geopolitical renovation, beginning with Donald Trump, will likely come via economic and trade policies that are designed to improve productivity and efficiency of rules-based economic and political institutions such as the Bretton Woods Institutions: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. With BRICS nations posing a significant threat to the liberal international economic and trade order, Trump has no choice but to confront the reality of the future of America in the entire global economic, governance, and political system. And he has been elected to redefine it. Will the task be easy? The answer is a big no.
Part Three
Where are we heading right now?
A few questions: Will Donald Trump succeed as the pioneering leader of the upcoming new world order for the next 2000 years? What will happen at this geopolitical crossroads? Will international cooperation increase or decline under Donald Trump’s presidency? Or will growing global threats to America’s supremacy lead the White House to implement a rules-based international liberal order with a defensive realism approach to maintain America’s role as the leading global economic powerhouse?
Chaos is what we can expect to experience over the coming decade and beyond. Chaos is the state of disorder, the opposite of order. It is a state of unpredictability, of randomness, of disarray—a state incompatible with life. Chaos—disorder—in international relations will cause anxiety, terror, and harm.
A US-led international order or a bounded order?: Will America succeed in imposing a single international order in today’s global system being shaped by BRICS and other forms of political and economic associations?
While it might be too early to provide an honest and pragmatic response to this question, political and economic confrontation, as well as power dynamics, tend to direct us toward a bounded international order.
Conclusion
World orders are nothing new. It is how the big global powers have set the rules of the game for centuries. The new world order has been under test since the year 2000, gathering lessons learned to build a highly centralized order.
2030 will also mark the second half of its implementation. By 2063, the leading country of this new world order should be known to everyone. Donald Trump’s presidency will clarify America’s path to realizing this vast enterprise.
The coming chaos will be much worse, much longer, and very different than what we’ve seen since World War II.
Author The Author
Jean Narcisse Djaha, PhD, is the Founding President and Chairman of the African Council on Foreign Relations. He is also the Founding President and Executive Chairman of the Africa-Israel Economic Cooperation Committee.